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Elche vs Cadiz — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cadiz
Cadiz
L. Boyé 71'
G. Escalante 10'
6/4/2023La LigaLa Liga · Round 38Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Elche44%
×Draw23%
Cadiz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.79
Cadiz
1.52

Elche creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

creates per match

Elche
1.55
Cadiz
1.41

allows per match

Elche
1.63
Cadiz
2.03

finishing

Elche-0.07on par
Cadiz-0.55scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Elche or draw
67%
Elche or Cadiz
77%
Draw or Cadiz
56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
24%
Cadiz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
83%
Elche 2+ goals
53%
Elche 3+ goals
26%
Cadiz 1+ goals
78%
Cadiz 2+ goals
45%
Cadiz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
57%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Cadiz defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Cadiz attack 1.41 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more
44%
level
23%
Cadiz scores more
33%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
GumbauElcheElche · M
7.6

Match Events

9'
Tete Morente
10'
G. Escalante↳ Fede San Emeterio
18'
Fede San Emeterio
29'
Tete MorenteGoal cancelled
38'
Randy NtekaGoal cancelled
53'
Roger← Sergi Guardiola
59'
Iván Alejo← A. Lozano
59'
Fali← T. Bongonda
68'
Iza Carcelén
71'
Gonzalo Verdú← E. Roco
71'
L. Boyé↳ Gumbau
80'
José Mari← Fede San Emeterio
81'
M. Mbaye← G. Escalante
82'
Gerard Gumbau
84'
E. Ponce← Fidel
84'
Pere Milla← R. Nteka
87'
John Nwankwo
87'
Fali
87'
Pape Cheikh← L. Magallán
90+1'
Pape Cheikh

Possession

67%Elche

Shots

12Elche

Pass accuracy

54%Elche

Statistics

ElcheCadiz
Overview
67%Possession33%
12Total Shots14
1.58Expected Goals (xG)2.55
7Corners4
18Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots14
5On Target3
5Off Target7
2Blocked4
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
67%Possession33%
487Total Passes239
394Accurate Passes163
81%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls8
4Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Elche 1 – 1 Cadiz

Elche and Cadiz drew 1-1 in La Liga on June 4, 2023.

Goals: G. Escalante (10'), L. Boyé (71').

Elche controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.