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Cadiz vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Elche
Elche
B. Ocampo 7'
E. Ponce 81'
1/16/2023La LigaLa Liga · Round 17Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cadiz44%
×Draw27%
Elche29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.39
Elche
1.08

Cadiz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cadiz
0.95
Elche
0.83

allows per match

Cadiz
1.34
Elche
1.83

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
71%
Cadiz or Elche
73%
Draw or Elche
56%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
21%
Elche wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
75%
Cadiz 2+ goals
40%
Cadiz 3+ goals
16%
Elche 1+ goals
66%
Elche 2+ goals
29%
Elche 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
60%
Elche (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Elche away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 0.95 + Elche defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Elche attack 0.83 + Cadiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cadiz scores more
44%
level
27%
Elche scores more
29%

Cadiz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
B. OcampoCadizCadiz · M
8.0

Match Events

7'
B. Ocampo
33'
M. Mbaye← Fali
43'
Diego González
46'
Fidel← Clerc
46'
L. Blanco← Pere Milla
61'
Iván Alejo← B. Ocampo
62'
Helibelton Palacios
72'
Fede San Emeterio
72'
E. Ponce← Roger
77'
Y. Diarra← Fede San Emeterio
77'
S. Arzamendia← Álex Fernández
78'
Álvaro Negredo← A. Lozano
81'
E. Ponce↳ L. Blanco
85'
L. Magallán← Diego González
85'
Tete Morente← José Ángel Carmona
90+5'
Youba Diarra
90+2'
Iván Alejo

Possession

50%Cadiz

Shots

16Cadiz

Pass accuracy

48%Cadiz

Statistics

CadizElche
Overview
50%Possession50%
16Total Shots12
3Corners6
11Fouls21
Shots
16Total Shots12
3On Target5
8Off Target6
5Blocked1
9Inside Box6
7Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
392Total Passes385
287Accurate Passes306
73%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls21
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Cadiz 1 – 1 Elche

Cadiz and Elche drew 1-1 in La Liga on January 16, 2023.

Goals: B. Ocampo (7'), E. Ponce (81').

Cadiz controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.