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Cadiz vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Elche
Elche
Álvaro Núñez 66'
4/12/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 35Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Cadiz42%
×Draw28%
Elche30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.28
Elche
1.04

Cadiz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Cadiz
1.28
Elche
1.07

allows per match

Cadiz
1.00
Elche
1.28

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
70%
Cadiz or Elche
72%
Draw or Elche
58%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
19%
Elche wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
72%
Cadiz 2+ goals
37%
Cadiz 3+ goals
14%
Elche 1+ goals
65%
Elche 2+ goals
28%
Elche 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
58%
Elche (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.28 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Elche attack 1.07 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cadiz scores more
42%
level
28%
Elche scores more
30%

Cadiz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. DituroElcheElche · G
8.5

Match Events

20'
Agustín ÁlvarezGoal cancelled
26'
Agustín Álvarez
32'
Rubén Sobrino
46'
Marc Aguado← Aleix Febas
54'
Moussa Diakité
61'
N. Fernández← M. El Ghezouani
63'
Iza Carcelén
66'
Álvaro Núñez↳ Germán Valera
67'
José de la Rosa← Álex Fernández
67'
Roger← M. Diakité
67'
Óscar Melendo← Rubén Sobrino
77'
Josan← Óscar Plano
81'
Rubén Alcaraz
84'
Carlos Fernández← Javi Ontiveros
84'
B. Ocampo← Chris Ramos
84'
Mario Gaspar← Marc Aguado
84'
Gerard Hernández← N. Castro
90+1'
Jose Salinas

Possession

41%Cadiz

Shots

15Cadiz

Pass accuracy

48%Cadiz

Statistics

CadizElche
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots11
4Corners5
16Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target4
6Off Target6
3Blocked1
8Inside Box3
7Outside Box8
Passing
41%Possession59%
323Total Passes477
258Accurate Passes417
80%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Elche

Elche beat Cadiz 1-0 in Segunda División on April 12, 2025.

Goals: Álvaro Núñez (66').

Elche controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.