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Elche vs Cadiz — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cadiz
Cadiz
Josan Ferrández 90+3'
Tete Morente 75'
Fidel 13' (pen)
Álex 90+1'
12/5/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 16Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Elche44%
×Draw23%
Cadiz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.74
Cadiz
1.47

Elche creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

creates per match

Elche
1.55
Cadiz
1.31

allows per match

Elche
1.63
Cadiz
1.93

finishing

Elche-0.07on par
Cadiz-0.56scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Elche or draw
67%
Elche or Cadiz
77%
Draw or Cadiz
56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
23%
Cadiz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
82%
Elche 2+ goals
52%
Elche 3+ goals
25%
Cadiz 1+ goals
77%
Cadiz 2+ goals
43%
Cadiz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
57%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.93 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Cadiz defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.74

Cadiz attack 1.31 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more
44%
level
23%
Cadiz scores more
33%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Tete MorenteElcheElche · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
Helibelton Palacios
13'
FidelPenalty
22'
Enzo Roco
26'
Fidel
27'
Iván Marcone
58'
Varazdat Haroyan
65'
Gumbau← Fidel
65'
Pere Milla← I. Marcone
68'
Álvaro Negredo← Isaac Carcelén
69'
Diego Gonzalez
69'
Anthony Lozano
75'
Tete Morente↳ Gumbau
76'
Josan Ferrández← Lucas Pérez
76'
Álvaro Jiménez← Sobrino
78'
Carlos Akapo
79'
Gerard Gumbau
81'
Martín Calderón← J. Jønsson
83'
Jose Morente
86'
D. Benedetto← L. Boyé
86'
G. Carrillo← Tete Morente
90+1'
Álex↳ Alberto Perea
90+3'
Josan Ferrández↳ Pere Milla

Possession

57%Elche

Shots

8Elche

Pass accuracy

52%Elche

Statistics

ElcheCadiz
Overview
57%Possession43%
8Total Shots15
3Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots15
3On Target6
3Off Target6
2Blocked3
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box7
Passing
57%Possession43%
458Total Passes327
370Accurate Passes247
81%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls15
7Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Elche vs Cadiz

Elche beat Cadiz 3-1 in La Liga on December 5, 2021.

Goals: Fidel (13' pen), Tete Morente (75'), Álex (90+1'), Josan Ferrández (90+3').

Elche controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.