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Elche vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cadiz
Cadiz
6/30/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 37Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Elche44%
×Draw29%
Cadiz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.27
Cadiz
0.92

Elche creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Cadiz
1.08

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Cadiz
1.23

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw
73%
Elche or Cadiz
71%
Draw or Cadiz
56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
20%
Cadiz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
36%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Cadiz 1+ goals
60%
Cadiz 2+ goals
23%
Cadiz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
62%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Cadiz defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cadiz attack 1.08 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more
44%
level
29%
Cadiz scores more
27%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Ramón FolchElcheElche · M
7.5

Match Events

29'
D. Escriche
45+4'
Y. Bodiger
46'
Álvaro Giménez← Nano
52'
G. Verdu
57'
Jonathas← Josán Fernández
62'
Jorge Pombo← José Jurado
71'
Sergio González← Y. Bodiger
78'
Fidel← Dani Escriche
79'
J. Pombo
82'
Manuel Sánchez← Iván Sánchez
82'
Pere Milla← Jony Carmona
86'
Alejo← Salvi
88'
Jonathas

Possession

63%Elche

Shots

5Elche

Pass accuracy

54%Elche

Statistics

ElcheCadiz
Overview
63%Possession37%
5Total Shots5
3Corners0
20Fouls18
Shots
5Total Shots5
0On Target1
3Off Target4
2Blocked0
2Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
511Total Passes284
426Accurate Passes199
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
20Fouls18
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Elche 0 – 0 Cadiz

Elche and Cadiz drew 0-0 in Segunda División on June 30, 2020.

Elche controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.