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Dynamos vs Bulawayo City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Dynamos
Dynamos
FT
2 – 1
Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
4/29/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8Rufaro Stadium (Harare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Dynamos51%
×Draw31%
Bulawayo City18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamos
1.18
Bulawayo City
0.56

Dynamos creates 111% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dynamos
1.04
Bulawayo City
0.52

allows per match

Dynamos
0.61
Bulawayo City
1.32

finishing

Dynamos+0.00on par
Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamos ↓

Bulawayo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dynamos or draw
82%
Dynamos or Bulawayo City
69%
Draw or Bulawayo City
49%

Winning margin

Dynamos wins by 2+
23%
Bulawayo City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dynamos 1+ goals
69%
Dynamos 2+ goals
33%
Dynamos 3+ goals
12%
Bulawayo City 1+ goals
43%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
11%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dynamos (draw refunded)
74%
Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamos at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.61 · 99 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamos attack 1.04 + Bulawayo City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bulawayo City attack 0.52 + Dynamos defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dynamos scores more
51%
level
31%
Bulawayo City scores more
18%

Dynamos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamos vs Bulawayo City

Dynamos beat Bulawayo City 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium (Harare).