Dynamo 3–1 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Dynamo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv

N. Ngamaleu 85'

M. Majstorović 59'

L. Gagnidze 12'

D. Vorobyev 39'

7/27/2024

Premier League · Round 2VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Dynamo45%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.41

Dynamo

1.71

Lokomotiv

1.41

Dynamo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

1.88

creates per match

1.59

1.23

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Dynamo

1.88

Lokomotiv

1.59

allows per match

Dynamo

1.23

Lokomotiv

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

68%

Dynamo or Lokomotiv

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv

55%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

23%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

82%

Dynamo 2+ goals

51%

Dynamo 3+ goals

24%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

76%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

41%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

58%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 1.88 + Lokomotiv defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lokomotiv attack 1.59 + Dynamo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dynamo scores more

45%

level

24%

Lokomotiv scores more

32%

Dynamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Bitello

Dynamo · M

8.6

Match Events

12'

L. Gagnidze↳ Bitello

25'

Aleksey Batrakov

37'

Lucas Fasson

39'

D. Vorobyev↳ S. Pinyaev

59'

M. Majstorović↳ Bitello

62'

Luka Gagnidze

62'

T. Suleymanov← M. Nenakhov

63'

N. Tiknizyan← V. Sarveli

64'

Sergey Pinyaev

69'

E. Nazarenko← A. Kutitskiy

69'

D. Skopintsev← S. Bessmertny

71'

V. Grulev← L. Gagnidze

77'

N. Saltykov← S. Pinyaev

85'

N. Ngamaleu↳ Y. Gladyshev

90+1'

V. Okishor← K. Tyukavin

90+1'

L. Zaydenzal← N. Ngamaleu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoLokomotiv

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots19

5Corners7

11Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots19

7On Target9

5Off Target4

4Blocked6

7Inside Box14

9Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

397Total Passes337

311Accurate Passes238

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4

Premier League: Dynamo 3–1 Lokomotiv

Dynamo beat Lokomotiv 3-1 in Premier League on July 27, 2024.

Goals: L. Gagnidze (12'), D. Vorobyev (39'), M. Majstorović (59'), N. Ngamaleu (85').

Dynamo controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 19.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.

Dynamo vs Lokomotiv — Premier League 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Dynamo 3–1 Lokomotiv