Dynamo Kyiv 4–0 Desna: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Desna

T. Zaviyskyi 78' (OG)

V. Buyalskyi 56', 30'

V. Tsygankov 37' (pen)

8/22/2021

Premier League · Round 5Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv51%

×Draw24%

Desna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchDesna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.14

Dynamo Kyiv

1.72

Desna

1.14

Dynamo Kyiv creates 51% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 38 away

2.07

creates per match

1.53

0.75

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.07

Desna

1.53

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.75

Desna

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Desna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Desna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

75%

Dynamo Kyiv or Desna

76%

Draw or Desna

49%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

28%

Desna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

82%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

51%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

25%

Desna 1+ goals

68%

Desna 2+ goals

32%

Desna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

67%

Desna (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.75 · 99 matches

Desna away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.07 + Desna defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.72

Desna attack 1.53 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

51%

level

24%

Desna scores more

25%

Dynamo Kyiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Andriy Dombrovskiy

30'

V. Buyalskyi↳ M. Shaparenko

35'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

37'

V. TsygankovPenalty

45+2'

Taras Zaviysky

46'

I. Shkurin← D. Harmash

46'

P. Budkivskyi← D. Bezborodko

46'

S. Bolbat← L. Arveladze

55'

Mykola Shaparenko

56'

V. Buyalskyi

67'

V. Shepelev← S. Sydorchuk

67'

O. Tymchyk← O. Syrota

68'

O. Karavaev← V. Tsygankov

77'

I. Shevtsov← O. Masalov

78'

B. Lednev← D. Antyukh

78'

T. ZaviyskyiOwn goal

84'

Ilya Zabarnyi

86'

M. Degtyarev← A. Totovytskyi

90+2'

Oleksandr Tymchyk

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DynamoDesna

Overview

61%Possession39%

3Total Shots0

3Fouls0

Shots

3Total Shots0

3On Target0

Passing

61%Possession39%

Discipline

3Fouls0

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0