Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo Kyiv vs Desna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
1 – 4
Desna
Desna
8/11/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3NTB Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv37%
×Draw22%
Desna42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.81
Desna
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.41
Desna
2.80

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.06
Desna
1.20

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Desna+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Desna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
58%
Dynamo Kyiv or Desna
78%
Draw or Desna
63%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
19%
Desna wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
54%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
27%
Desna 1+ goals
85%
Desna 2+ goals
57%
Desna 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
47%
Desna (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Desna away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.41 + Desna defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Desna attack 2.80 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
37%
level
22%
Desna scores more
42%

Desna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Desna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Desna

Desna beat Dynamo Kyiv 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 11, 2020.

The match was played at NTB Dynamo in Koncha-Zaspa.