Desna 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Desna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv

P. Budkivskyi 53'

V. Tsygankov 90+2' (pen)

2/21/2021

Premier League · Round 15Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Desna30%

×Draw24%

Dynamo Kyiv46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DesnaExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.66

Desna

1.28

Dynamo Kyiv

1.66

Dynamo Kyiv creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 98 away

1.61

creates per match

2.27

1.05

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Desna

1.61

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

allows per match

Desna

1.05

Dynamo Kyiv

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desna+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desna ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Desna or draw

54%

Desna or Dynamo Kyiv

76%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

70%

Winning margin

Desna wins by 2+

13%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Desna 1+ goals

72%

Desna 2+ goals

37%

Desna 3+ goals

14%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

81%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

49%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Desna (draw refunded)

39%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desna at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desna attack 1.61 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Desna defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Desna scores more

30%

level

24%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

46%

Dynamo Kyiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Pylyp Budkivskyi

45'

Artem Besedin

53'

P. Budkivskyi↳ V. Kalitvintsev

57'

Maksym Imerekov

65'

M. Shaparenko← V. Shepelev

69'

Levan Arveladze

69'

Gerson Rodrigues

69'

A. Gitchenko← L. Arveladze

80'

Viktor Tsygankov

82'

D. Bezborodko← O. Hutsulyak

82'

E. Kartushov← V. Kalitvintsev

84'

Denys Bezborodko

86'

V. Supryaha← A. Besedin

87'

Denys Bezborodko

87'

Denys Bezborodko

89'

Vitaliy Mykolenko

90+4'

Y. Chepurnenko← P. Budkivskyi

90+2'

V. TsygankovPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DesnaDynamo

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots11

4Corners13

15Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots11

1On Target6

4Off Target5

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1