Dunkerque 1–1 Boulogne: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boulogne

T. Robinet 59'

J. Bultel 90'

11/7/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Marcel Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dunkerque39%

×Draw28%

Boulogne32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchBoulogne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.06

Dunkerque

1.21

Boulogne

1.06

Dunkerque creates 14% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 28 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Boulogne

1.00

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Boulogne

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Boulogne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

68%

Dunkerque or Boulogne

72%

Draw or Boulogne

61%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

17%

Boulogne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

70%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

34%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

12%

Boulogne 1+ goals

65%

Boulogne 2+ goals

29%

Boulogne 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

55%

Boulogne (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunkerque scores more

39%

level

28%

Boulogne scores more

32%

Dunkerque at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Bultel

Boulogne · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

Vincent Burlet

26'

Gessime Yassine

50'

Allan Linguet

59'

T. Robinet↳ G. Yassine

60'

70'

70'

72'

73'

V. Mayela← A. Linguet

73'

A. Daho← T. Robinet

73'

F. Boulet← C. Fatou

85'

Aristide Zossou

86'

A. Pinot← E. Mpembele Boula

86'

L. Boiteau← N. Fatar

90+3'

I. Eguaras← G. Yassine

90'

J. Bultel↳ J. Boyer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DunkerqueBoulogne

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots11

3Corners7

15Fouls23

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target4

4Off Target4

4Blocked3

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

483Total Passes238

416Accurate Passes166

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls23

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4