Boulogne 2–6 Dunkerque: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Boulogne

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Dunkerque

M. Lecolier 72'

A. Pinot 8'

T. Massock 90'

M. Makhloufi 90'

T. Robinet 81', 13'

V. Sasso 64', 37'

4/27/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boulogne36%

×Draw27%

Dunkerque37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.27

Boulogne

1.24

Dunkerque

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 92 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

1.52

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Boulogne

1.00

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Boulogne

1.52

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

63%

Boulogne or Dunkerque

73%

Draw or Dunkerque

64%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

15%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

71%

Boulogne 2+ goals

35%

Boulogne 3+ goals

13%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

72%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

36%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

49%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boulogne scores more

36%

level

27%

Dunkerque scores more

37%

Dunkerque at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

87

T. Massock

Dunkerque · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

A. Pinot↳ N. Fatar

13'

T. Robinet↳ E. Bardeli

17'

37'

50'

64'

65'

67'

72'

M. Lecolier↳ N. Binet

73'

N. Zohore← S. Duflos

73'

C. Fatou← M. Lecolier

74'

V. Burlet← J. Boyer

74'

J. Bultel← A. El Farissi

77'

T. Massock← A. Linguet

78'

E. Sylvestre← M. Essimi

81'

T. Robinet↳ T. Massock

82'

A. Platret← N. Fatar

86'

M. Makhloufi← E. Bardeli

87'

A. Kante← T. Robinet

90'

T. Massock↳ Z. Seha

90'

M. Makhloufi↳ P. Diong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoulogneDunkerque

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots10

5Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots10

4On Target8

3Off Target2

2Blocked1

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

470Total Passes385

391Accurate Passes296

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

4Offsides4

Match Recap: Boulogne vs Dunkerque

Dunkerque beat Boulogne 6-2 in Ligue 2 on April 27, 2026.

Goals: A. Pinot (8'), T. Robinet (13', 81'), V. Sasso (37', 64'), M. Lecolier (72'), T. Massock (90'), M. Makhloufi (90').

Boulogne controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de la Libération in Boulogne-sur-Mer.

Boulogne vs Dunkerque — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Boulogne vs Dunkerque