Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Boulogne vs Dunkerque — Coupe de France 2018

Boulogne
Boulogne
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dunkerque
Dunkerque
Unknown 90'
C. Fatou 12'
G. Yassine 73'
Z. Seha 45'
11/16/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 1/128-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Boulogne56%
×Draw21%
Dunkerque23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boulogne
2.17
Dunkerque
1.33

Boulogne creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Boulogne
3.33
Dunkerque
2.00

allows per match

Boulogne
0.67
Dunkerque
1.00

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par
Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw
77%
Boulogne or Dunkerque
79%
Draw or Dunkerque
44%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+
34%
Dunkerque wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals
89%
Boulogne 2+ goals
64%
Boulogne 3+ goals
36%
Dunkerque 1+ goals
74%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
38%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)
71%
Dunkerque (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 3.33 + Dunkerque defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dunkerque attack 2.00 + Boulogne defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Boulogne scores more
56%
level
21%
Dunkerque scores more
23%

Boulogne at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Boulogne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
C. Fatou
45'
Z. Seha
73'
G. Yassine
90+3'
G. Yassine
90'
Boulogne
Dunkerque
Fabien Dagneaux
Manager: Fabien Dagneaux
Albert Sánchez Saura
Manager: Albert Sánchez Saura

Coupe de France: Boulogne 2–2 Dunkerque

Boulogne and Dunkerque drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2025.

Goals: C. Fatou (12'), Z. Seha (45'), G. Yassine (73'), ? (90').