Dunkerque 0–2 Annecy: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Annecy

F. Lajugie 84'

A. Kashi 52'

8/16/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dunkerque39%

×Draw27%

Annecy34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchAnnecy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

Dunkerque

1.30

Annecy

1.18

Dunkerque creates 10% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.11

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Annecy

1.24

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Annecy

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Annecy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

66%

Dunkerque or Annecy

73%

Draw or Annecy

61%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

18%

Annecy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

73%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

37%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

14%

Annecy 1+ goals

69%

Annecy 2+ goals

33%

Annecy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

54%

Annecy (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Annecy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Annecy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Annecy attack 1.24 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunkerque scores more

39%

level

27%

Annecy scores more

34%

Dunkerque at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Kashi

Annecy · M

8.3

Match Events

52'

66'

71'

72'

72'

J. Senneville← N. Fernandez-Veliz

80'

Gaëtan Courtet

80'

Yohan Demoncy

81'

J. Kouadio← F. Nsakala

82'

B. Youssouf← A. Georgen

82'

A. Drouhin← S. Ntamack

84'

F. Lajugie↳ A. Larose

89'

N. Lemina← C. Billemaz

90'

L. Bessilé← E. Bardeli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DunkerqueAnnecy

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots12

8Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target4

6Off Target7

4Blocked1

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

536Total Passes308

411Accurate Passes201

77%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4