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Annecy vs Dunkerque — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dunkerque
Dunkerque
C. Billemaz 30'
V. Pajot 16'
G. Yassine 52'
A. Sekongo 45'
8/16/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Annecy44%
×Draw27%
Dunkerque29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.36
Dunkerque
1.05

Annecy creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 92 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Dunkerque
1.03

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Dunkerque
1.48

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
71%
Annecy or Dunkerque
73%
Draw or Dunkerque
56%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
21%
Dunkerque wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
74%
Annecy 2+ goals
39%
Annecy 3+ goals
16%
Dunkerque 1+ goals
65%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
28%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
60%
Dunkerque (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Annecy scores more
44%
level
27%
Dunkerque scores more
29%

Annecy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
C. BillemazAnnecyAnnecy · M
8.7

Match Events

4'
Clement Billemaz
9'
Allan Linguet
16'
V. Pajot↳ C. Billemaz
17'
Ranjan Neelakandan
30'
C. Billemaz↳ R. Neelakandan
45'
A. Sekongo
52'
G. Yassine↳ A. Sekongo
58'
P. Venot← R. Neelakandan
59'
T. Delphis← M. Veillon
59'
Q. Paris← T. Rambaud
60'
Francois Lajugie
60'
A. Daho← G. Yassine
71'
T. Massock← D. Queiros
71'
A. Kante← A. Sekongo
80'
A. Larose← A. Hbouch
90'
Thibault Delphis

Possession

37%Annecy

Shots

9Annecy

Pass accuracy

47%Annecy

Statistics

AnnecyDunkerque
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots5
3Corners5
21Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots5
3On Target2
4Off Target3
2Blocked0
7Inside Box3
2Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
282Total Passes496
210Accurate Passes415
74%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Ligue 2: Annecy 2–2 Dunkerque

Annecy and Dunkerque drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on August 16, 2025.

Goals: V. Pajot (16'), C. Billemaz (30'), A. Sekongo (45'), G. Yassine (52').

Dunkerque controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.