Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Annecy vs Dunkerque — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dunkerque
Dunkerque
K. Tejan 64'
G. Yassine 27'
1/27/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Annecy44%
×Draw27%
Dunkerque29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.36
Dunkerque
1.05

Annecy creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 92 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Dunkerque
1.03

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Dunkerque
1.48

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
71%
Annecy or Dunkerque
73%
Draw or Dunkerque
56%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
21%
Dunkerque wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
74%
Annecy 2+ goals
39%
Annecy 3+ goals
16%
Dunkerque 1+ goals
65%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
28%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
60%
Dunkerque (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Annecy scores more
44%
level
27%
Dunkerque scores more
29%

Annecy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41
T. DelphisAnnecyAnnecy · D
7.3

Match Events

7'
Gaëtan Courtet
17'
Axel Drouhin
23'
Vincent Pajot
27'
G. Yassine
60'
W. Tiendrébéogo← A. Bermont
60'
K. Veniere← V. Pajot
60'
C. Billemaz← A. Larose
60'
K. Tejan← M. Essimi
64'
K. Tejan↳ E. Bardeli
67'
T. Dago← K. Djoco
67'
A. Sekongo← N. Skyttä
67'
Abner← A. Linguet
76'
Ahmed Kashi
82'
Y. Bammou← G. Yassine
82'
G. Kondo← V. Sasso

Possession

56%Annecy

Shots

6Annecy

Pass accuracy

53%Annecy

Statistics

AnnecyDunkerque
Overview
56%Possession44%
6Total Shots14
6Corners8
17Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots14
1On Target6
1Off Target5
4Blocked3
1Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
420Total Passes320
306Accurate Passes208
73%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls16
3Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Annecy vs Dunkerque

Dunkerque beat Annecy 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 27, 2025.

Goals: G. Yassine (27'), K. Tejan (64').

Annecy controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Annecy.