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Dunav Ruse vs Ludogorets — First League 2026

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
Preview
16:00
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
7/27/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Gradski stadion
Big match
54%
Ludogorets
model favours
21%25%54%

Ludogorets are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunav Ruse21%
×Draw25%
Ludogorets54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
0.92
Ludogorets
1.62

Ludogorets creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 131 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.00
Ludogorets
1.81

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
1.43
Ludogorets
0.84

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
46%
Dunav Ruse or Ludogorets
75%
Draw or Ludogorets
79%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
7%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
60%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
23%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
7%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
80%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
48%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
28%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.00 + Ludogorets defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Ludogorets attack 1.81 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
21%
level
25%
Ludogorets scores more
54%

Ludogorets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ludogorets have won 3 in a row
  • Ludogorets win just 8% of their away games
  • Ludogorets have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Ludogorets outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Dunav Ruse
Balanced
Ludogorets
Possession-dominant
39%Possession60%
—Pass accuracy86%
5.5ShotsBiggest gap13.7
—xG1.81
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dunav RuseLudogorets

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Dunav Ruse
0
Draws
5
Ludogorets
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 40%
0–41–50–10–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Ruse
LDDD
Ludogorets
LWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dunav Ruse host Ludogorets

July 27, 2026: Dunav Ruse take on Ludogorets in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dunav Ruse host Ludogorets at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.