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Dunav Ruse vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
11/3/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dunav Ruse60%
×Draw25%
Chernomorets Balchik15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.57
Chernomorets Balchik
0.64

Dunav Ruse creates 145% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 43 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.45
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.67
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
85%
Dunav Ruse or Chernomorets Balchik
75%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
40%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
32%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
79%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
46%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
21%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
47%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
14%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
80%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
60%
level
25%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
15%

Dunav Ruse at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Chernomorets Balchik

Dunav Ruse beat Chernomorets Balchik 2-0 in Second League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.