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Dunav Ruse vs Chernomorets Balchik — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
1 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
4/10/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 22Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dunav Ruse48%
×Draw22%
Chernomorets Balchik30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.89
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44

Dunav Ruse creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
3.08
Chernomorets Balchik
2.26

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.62
Chernomorets Balchik
0.70

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
70%
Dunav Ruse or Chernomorets Balchik
78%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
52%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
27%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
85%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
56%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
29%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
76%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
42%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
62%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 3.08 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.89

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.26 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
48%
level
22%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
30%

Dunav Ruse at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dunav Ruse 1–0 Chernomorets Balchik

Dunav Ruse beat Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.