Chernomorets Balchik 1–2 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Chernomorets Balchik

FT

1 – 2

Dunav Ruse

9/8/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik49%

×Draw22%

Dunav Ruse29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets BalchikExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.46

Chernomorets Balchik

1.93

Dunav Ruse

1.46

Chernomorets Balchik creates 32% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

2.66

creates per match

2.37

0.55

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik

2.66

Dunav Ruse

2.37

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik

0.55

Dunav Ruse

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw

71%

Chernomorets Balchik or Dunav Ruse

78%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

51%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

27%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

85%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

57%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

30%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

77%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

43%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

62%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.55 · 71 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.66 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dunav Ruse attack 2.37 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

49%

level

22%

Dunav Ruse scores more

29%

Chernomorets Balchik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff