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Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
2/16/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dunav Ruse32%
×Draw28%
Cherno More Varna40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.05
Cherno More Varna
1.22

Cherno More Varna creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 136 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.00
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
1.38
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
60%
Dunav Ruse or Cherno More Varna
72%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
68%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
12%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
65%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
28%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
9%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
70%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
34%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
44%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.00 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
32%
level
28%
Cherno More Varna scores more
40%

Cherno More Varna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna beat Dunav Ruse 2-0 in First League on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Rousse.