Cherno More Varna 1–1 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Cherno More Varna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dunav Ruse

A. Donchev 90+1'

D. Minchev 37'

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cherno More Varna44%

×Draw25%

Dunav Ruse32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cherno More VarnaExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.31

Cherno More Varna

1.58

Dunav Ruse

1.31

Cherno More Varna creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.59

creates per match

1.86

0.76

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cherno More Varna

1.59

Dunav Ruse

1.86

allows per match

Cherno More Varna

0.76

Dunav Ruse

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw

68%

Cherno More Varna or Dunav Ruse

75%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

56%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

22%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

79%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

47%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

21%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

73%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

38%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

58%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dunav Ruse attack 1.86 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more

44%

level

25%

Dunav Ruse scores more

32%

Cherno More Varna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

D. Minchev

90+1'

A. Donchev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff