Cherno More Varna 1–1 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Cherno More Varna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dunav Ruse

8/30/2019

First League · Round 8Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cherno More Varna59%

×Draw23%

Dunav Ruse18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cherno More VarnaExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.89

Cherno More Varna

1.79

Dunav Ruse

0.89

Cherno More Varna creates 101% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 32 away

1.40

creates per match

0.97

0.81

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Cherno More Varna

1.40

Dunav Ruse

0.97

allows per match

Cherno More Varna

0.81

Dunav Ruse

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw

82%

Cherno More Varna or Dunav Ruse

77%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

41%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

33%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

83%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

53%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

26%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

59%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

22%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

76%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Dunav Ruse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dunav Ruse attack 0.97 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more

59%

level

23%

Dunav Ruse scores more

18%

Cherno More Varna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff