Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Dukla Praha33%
Bohemians 190540%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bohemians 1905 creates 12% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dukla Praha ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dukla Praha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches
Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dukla Praha attack 0.88 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19
Bohemians 1905 attack 1.29 + Dukla Praha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Bohemians 1905 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Slavia Praha
Plzen
Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník Ostrava
České BudějoviceBohemians 1905
Slovácko
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Dukla Praha host Bohemians 1905 on Saturday, 27 July 2024 at 12:30. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: Dukla Praha 1–0 Bohemians 1905
Dukla Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 in Czech Liga on July 27, 2024.
Goals: D. Hašek (66').
Bohemians 1905 controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 6.
The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.