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Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
FT
4 – 3
Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
10/8/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Libčice nad Vltavou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dukla Praha52%
×Draw21%
Bohemians 190527%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha
2.08
Bohemians 1905
1.46

Dukla Praha creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha
2.56
Bohemians 1905
1.80

allows per match

Dukla Praha
1.11
Bohemians 1905
1.60

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par
Bohemians 1905+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Bohemians 1905 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw
73%
Dukla Praha or Bohemians 1905
79%
Draw or Bohemians 1905
48%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+
30%
Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals
87%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
61%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
34%
Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
77%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
43%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
66%
Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 2.56 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.80 + Dukla Praha defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dukla Praha scores more
52%
level
21%
Bohemians 1905 scores more
27%

Dukla Praha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905

Dukla Praha beat Bohemians 1905 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Libčice nad Vltavou in Libčice nad Vltavou.