Bohemians 1905 3–1 Dukla Praha: Result & Stats

Bohemians 1905

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dukla Praha

A. Čermák 85'

V. Drchal 75'

A. Kadlec 67'

Š. Šebrle 52'

11/24/2024

Czech Liga · Round 16Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bohemians 190544%

×Draw26%

Dukla Praha30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bohemians 1905Expected goals in this matchDukla Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Bohemians 1905

1.43

Dukla Praha

1.14

Bohemians 1905 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.48

creates per match

0.87

1.40

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Bohemians 1905

1.48

Dukla Praha

0.87

allows per match

Bohemians 1905

1.40

Dukla Praha

1.37

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.67scores less than expected

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.55scores less

Dukla Praha-0.67scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Dukla Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw

70%

Bohemians 1905 or Dukla Praha

74%

Draw or Dukla Praha

56%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

21%

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

76%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

42%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

17%

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

68%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

32%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

59%

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.48 + Dukla Praha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dukla Praha attack 0.87 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more

44%

level

26%

Dukla Praha scores more

30%

Bohemians 1905 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

V. Drchal

Bohemians 1905 · F

8.3

Match Events

46'

V. Zeman← J. Matoušek

52'

Š. Šebrle↳ J. Řezníček

59'

J. Kovařík← A. Křapka

59'

D. Vala← M. Ristovski

59'

66'

67'

71'

72'

75'

V. Drchal↳ J. Kovařík

82'

F. Špatenka← Š. Šebrle

82'

J. Zeronik← J. Řezníček

85'

A. Čermák

90+3'

J. Shejbal← Abdulla Yusuf Helal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BohemiansDukla

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots9

7Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target1

9Off Target6

4Blocked2

9Inside Box6

9Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

332Total Passes335

217Accurate Passes236

65%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Offsides2