Dukla Banská Bystrica 6–1 AS Trencin

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

AS Trencin

M. Rymarenko 77', 60', 25'

T. Slebodník 61'

Ľ. Willwéber 39'

T. Záhumenský 34'

L. Mikulaj 40'

11/23/2024

League #332 · Round 15Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica45%

×Draw23%

AS Trencin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchAS Trencin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.48

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.80

AS Trencin

1.48

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.13

1.84

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.40

AS Trencin

1.13

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.84

AS Trencin

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

AS Trencin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

AS Trencin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

68%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or AS Trencin

77%

Draw or AS Trencin

55%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

24%

AS Trencin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

83%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

54%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

27%

AS Trencin 1+ goals

77%

AS Trencin 2+ goals

43%

AS Trencin 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

59%

AS Trencin (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

AS Trencin away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.40 + AS Trencin defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

AS Trencin attack 1.13 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

45%

level

23%

AS Trencin scores more

32%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Rymarenko

Dukla Banská Bystrica · F

10.0

Match Events

25'

M. Rymarenko↳ M. Pišoja

34'

T. Záhumenský

39'

Ľ. Willwéber↳ T. Záhumenský

40'

L. Mikulaj↳ S. Ben Sallam

46'

E. Uchegbu← S. Suleiman

60'

M. Rymarenko↳ M. Pišoja

61'

T. Slebodník↳ M. Rymarenko

62'

B. Donkor← J. Sunday

65'

M. Yakubu← R. Ibrahim

65'

T. Hájovský← S. Ben Sallam

76'

B. Ľupták← J. Považanec

77'

L. Zorić← L. Mikulaj

77'

M. Rymarenko↳ T. Slebodník

84'

D. Veselovský← T. Slebodník

84'

A. Hanes← M. Pišoja

86'

A. Brenkus← D. Richtárech

86'

T. Malec← M. Rymarenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DuklaAS

Overview

49%Possession51%

21Total Shots11

6Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots11

11On Target4

1Off Target6

9Blocked1

17Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

381Total Passes398

305Accurate Passes319

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls8

4Offsides0