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AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

AS Trencin
AS Trencin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
S. Suleiman 66'
O. Klimpl 58' (OG)
I. Mensah 33'
L. Ezeh 2'
4/25/2025League #332League #332 · Relegation Round - 7Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Trencin43%
×Draw24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Trencin
1.59
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.36

AS Trencin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

AS Trencin
1.38
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19

allows per match

AS Trencin
1.54
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.81

finishing

AS Trencin+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Trencin ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Trencin or draw
67%
AS Trencin or Dukla Banská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
57%

Winning margin

AS Trencin wins by 2+
22%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AS Trencin 1+ goals
80%
AS Trencin 2+ goals
47%
AS Trencin 3+ goals
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
74%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
39%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AS Trencin (draw refunded)
57%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Trencin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Trencin attack 1.38 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + AS Trencin defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Trencin scores more
43%
level
24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
33%

AS Trencin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Trencin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. BondarenkoAS TrencinAS Trencin · D
8.6

Match Events

2'
L. Ezeh
7'
Pepijn DoesburgPenalty cancelled
20'
Loic Bessile
33'
I. Mensah↳ D. Veselovský
56'
J. Nsumoh← A. Fiala
56'
S. Suleiman← D. Jepihhin
58'
D. Richtárech← J. Považanec
58'
O. KlimplOwn goal
66'
S. Suleiman
68'
Oliver Klimpl
75'
B. Sy← D. Veselovský
84'
M. Khan← P. Doesburg
84'
S. Ben Sallam← D. Bariš
90+3'
Molik Khan
90+2'
T. Hájovský← A. Gajdoš
90+2'
B. Ľupták← M. Rymarenko

Possession

72%AS

Shots

24AS

Pass accuracy

59%AS

Statistics

ASDukla
Overview
72%Possession28%
24Total Shots11
11Corners6
8Fouls11
Shots
24Total Shots11
6On Target5
11Off Target3
7Blocked3
15Inside Box6
9Outside Box5
Passing
72%Possession28%
530Total Passes201
448Accurate Passes116
85%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

AS Trencin and Dukla Banská Bystrica drew 2-2 in League #332 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Ezeh (2'), I. Mensah (33'), O. Klimpl (58' o.g.), S. Suleiman (66').

AS Trencin controlled possession (72%) and registered 24 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti in Trenčín.