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AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

AS Trencin
AS Trencin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
N. Kupusović 73'
C. Emeka 31'
5/11/2024League #332League #332 · Relegation Round - 9Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Trencin43%
×Draw24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Trencin
1.59
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.36

AS Trencin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

AS Trencin
1.38
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19

allows per match

AS Trencin
1.54
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.81

finishing

AS Trencin+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Trencin ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Trencin or draw
67%
AS Trencin or Dukla Banská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
57%

Winning margin

AS Trencin wins by 2+
22%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AS Trencin 1+ goals
80%
AS Trencin 2+ goals
47%
AS Trencin 3+ goals
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
74%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
39%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AS Trencin (draw refunded)
57%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Trencin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Trencin attack 1.38 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + AS Trencin defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Trencin scores more
43%
level
24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
33%

AS Trencin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Trencin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
VózinhaAS TrencinAS Trencin · G
8.3

Match Events

28'
Artur Gajdoš
31'
C. Emeka↳ R. Ibrahim
32'
T. Hájovský← L. Skovajsa
44'
Chinonso Emeka
44'
Rahim Ibrahim
44'
Boris Godál
44'
Ľubomír Willwéber
46'
N. Kupusović← C. Emeka
46'
Marquinho← M. Pišoja
68'
D. Veselovský← A. Hanes
69'
D. Richtárech← B. Ľupták
69'
O. Klimpl← B. Godál
73'
N. Kupusović↳ A. Gajdoš
76'
H. Gong← J. Sunday
83'
J. Akila← D. Bariš
83'
S. Ben Sallam← A. Gajdoš
83'
D. Depetris← Marquinho

Possession

64%AS

Shots

18AS

Pass accuracy

53%AS

Statistics

ASDukla
Overview
64%Possession36%
18Total Shots10
2Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots10
4On Target6
8Off Target2
6Blocked2
9Inside Box6
9Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
533Total Passes304
450Accurate Passes231
84%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Match Recap: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

AS Trencin beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 2-0 in League #332 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: C. Emeka (31'), N. Kupusović (73').

AS Trencin controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti in Trenčín.