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Dubai City vs Masafi — Division 1 2018

Dubai City
Dubai City
FT
0 – 2
Masafi
Masafi
10/9/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dubai City33%
×Draw24%
Masafi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubai City
1.38
Masafi
1.60

Masafi creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dubai City
0.98
Masafi
1.23

allows per match

Dubai City
1.98
Masafi
1.77

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw
57%
Dubai City or Masafi
76%
Draw or Masafi
67%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+
15%
Masafi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals
75%
Dubai City 2+ goals
40%
Dubai City 3+ goals
16%
Masafi 1+ goals
80%
Masafi 2+ goals
47%
Masafi 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)
44%
Masafi (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.98 · 60 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Masafi defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.38

Masafi attack 1.23 + Dubai City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dubai City scores more
33%
level
24%
Masafi scores more
43%

Masafi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubai City vs Masafi

Masafi beat Dubai City 2-0 in Division 1 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.