Dordrecht 0–1 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Almere City FC

A. Sam 77'

11/3/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 14M-Scores Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dordrecht43%

×Draw24%

Almere City FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.40

Dordrecht

1.63

Almere City FC

1.40

Dordrecht creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.64

creates per match

1.80

0.99

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.64

Almere City FC

1.80

allows per match

Dordrecht

0.99

Almere City FC

1.63

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Dordrecht-0.35scores less

Almere City FC+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

67%

Dordrecht or Almere City FC

76%

Draw or Almere City FC

57%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

22%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

80%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

48%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

22%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

75%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

41%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

57%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 7 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.64 + Almere City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Almere City FC attack 1.80 + Dordrecht defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dordrecht scores more

43%

level

24%

Almere City FC scores more

33%

Dordrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Sam

Almere City FC · D

8.3

Match Events

48'

Tiziano Vianello

59'

J. Rijkhoff← B. Burgering

64'

J. Pynadath← N. Venema

75'

J. Lawrence← T. Vianello

75'

F. Druijf← J. Kadile

77'

A. Sam↳ M. de Haan

78'

T. Coremans← C. Biai

78'

S. Vugts← L. Sunderland

79'

Augustin Drakpe

85'

M. Afaker← N. Rossi

85'

S. Carrillo← J. van der Sluijs

88'

89'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DordrechtAlmere

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots17

8Corners8

10Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots17

5On Target5

8Off Target8

7Blocked4

11Inside Box10

9Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

381Total Passes281

284Accurate Passes203

75%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2