Dordrecht 0–1 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Almere City FC

A. Limbombe 24'

3/3/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 27Matchoholic Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dordrecht43%

×Draw24%

Almere City FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.40

Dordrecht

1.63

Almere City FC

1.40

Dordrecht creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.64

creates per match

1.80

0.99

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.64

Almere City FC

1.80

allows per match

Dordrecht

0.99

Almere City FC

1.63

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Dordrecht-0.35scores less

Almere City FC+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

67%

Dordrecht or Almere City FC

76%

Draw or Almere City FC

57%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

22%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

80%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

48%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

22%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

75%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

41%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

57%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 7 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.64 + Almere City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Almere City FC attack 1.80 + Dordrecht defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dordrecht scores more

43%

level

24%

Almere City FC scores more

33%

Dordrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Bossin

Dordrecht · G

8.3

Match Events

24'

A. Limbombe

46'

J. Pinas← P. Doesburg

53'

M. Savastano← Elso Brito

53'

V. Schippers← A. Aberkane

58'

M. Corryn← Pascu

58'

J. Hilterman← A. Limbombe

68'

70'

84'

87'

90+1'

M. Esajas← J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DordrechtAlmere

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots17

1Corners3

17Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots17

3On Target10

3Off Target6

1Blocked1

3Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

559Total Passes454

455Accurate Passes346

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

9Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2