Almere City FC 4–1 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dordrecht

J. Jacobs 76'

F. Druijf 56'

M. Dors 31'

J. Rijkhoff 17'

R. van Asten 45'

4/17/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 37Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Almere City FC50%

×Draw21%

Dordrecht28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.50

Almere City FC

2.06

Dordrecht

1.50

Almere City FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.16

creates per match

1.50

1.49

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Almere City FC

2.16

Dordrecht

1.50

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.49

Dordrecht

1.95

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.70scores more

Dordrecht-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

72%

Almere City FC or Dordrecht

79%

Draw or Dordrecht

50%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

29%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

87%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

61%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

34%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

78%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

44%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

64%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.49 · 7 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 2.16 + Dordrecht defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dordrecht attack 1.50 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Almere City FC scores more

50%

level

21%

Dordrecht scores more

28%

Almere City FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Jacobs

Almere City FC · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

Joey de Bie

17'

J. Rijkhoff↳ F. Druijf

31'

M. Dors↳ I. Ghogli

39'

Milan de Haan

45'

R. van Asten↳ D. Yoon

46'

E. Cornelisse← M. de Haan

46'

N. Venema← D. Yoon

46'

J. Pynadath← N. Rossi

56'

F. Druijf↳ H. el Dahri

65'

E. Poku← I. Ghogli

65'

S. Carrillo← J. de Bie

65'

S. Bae← L. Sunderland

74'

J. Jacobs← M. Dors

74'

O. de Nijs← J. Rijkhoff

76'

J. Jacobs↳ O. de Nijs

85'

M. Vetkal← D. van Vianen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereDordrecht

Overview

51%Possession49%

19Total Shots13

2.61Expected Goals (xG)1.08

5Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots13

8On Target6

8Off Target3

3Blocked4

10Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

480Total Passes457

392Accurate Passes389

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1