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Doncaster vs Mansfield Town — League One 2025

Doncaster
Doncaster
Preview
15:00
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
3/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 34Eco-Power Stadium
Big match
42%
Mansfield Town
model favours
31%28%42%

Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Doncaster31%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.08
Mansfield Town
1.30

Mansfield Town creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.21
Mansfield Town
1.16

allows per match

Doncaster
1.44
Mansfield Town
0.96

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
58%
Doncaster or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
69%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
12%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
66%
Doncaster 2+ goals
29%
Doncaster 3+ goals
10%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
73%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
37%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
43%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.21 + Mansfield Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mansfield Town attack 1.16 + Doncaster defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Doncaster scores more
31%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
42%

Mansfield Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Doncaster play Defensively solid, Mansfield Town Attack-heavy
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Mansfield Town outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Doncaster
Defensively solid
Mansfield Town
Attack-heavy
50%PossessionBiggest gap42%
70%Pass accuracy71%
12.3Shots13.0
1.93xG1.68
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DoncasterMansfield Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Doncaster
2
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 80%
0–22–11–12–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doncaster
WWWDL
Town
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Doncaster host Mansfield Town

March 6, 2027: Doncaster take on Mansfield Town in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Doncaster host Mansfield Town at Eco-Power Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.