Doncaster 1–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

J. Sterry 79'

A. Smith 5'

4/12/2025

League Two · Round 42Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Doncaster39%

×Draw29%

AFC Wimbledon32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.03

Doncaster

1.18

AFC Wimbledon

1.03

Doncaster creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

1.42

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Doncaster

1.42

AFC Wimbledon

0.89

allows per match

Doncaster

1.17

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

68%

Doncaster or AFC Wimbledon

71%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

61%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

17%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

69%

Doncaster 2+ goals

33%

Doncaster 3+ goals

12%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

64%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

28%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

55%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.42 + AFC Wimbledon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 + Doncaster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Doncaster scores more

39%

level

29%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

32%

Doncaster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Gibson

Doncaster · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

A. Smith↳ M. Stevens

22'

Riley Harbottle

28'

Jake Reeves

30'

C. Maycock← M. Stevens

40'

James Tilley

46'

J. McGrath← R. Wood

59'

J. Sbarra← H. Clifton

70'

O. Foyo← Omar Bugiel

71'

B. Sharp← T. Anderson

71'

J. Ironside← R. Street

71'

P. Kelly← J. Gibson

72'

Billy Sharp

79'

J. Sterry↳ G. Broadbent

84'

I. Ogundere← R. Harbottle

84'

A. Sasu← J. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterAFC

Overview

71%Possession29%

18Total Shots8

12Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots8

3On Target1

6Off Target4

9Blocked3

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

454Total Passes187

353Accurate Passes93

78%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon

Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon drew 1-1 in League Two on April 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Smith (5'), J. Sterry (79').

Doncaster controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.

Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon