AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

M. Stevens 27'

12/14/2024

League Two · Round 20The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AFC Wimbledon45%

×Draw27%

Doncaster28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

AFC Wimbledon

1.38

Doncaster

1.04

AFC Wimbledon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

1.46

creates per match

1.46

0.62

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.46

Doncaster

1.46

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

0.62

Doncaster

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

72%

AFC Wimbledon or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

55%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

21%

Doncaster wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

75%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

40%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

65%

Doncaster 2+ goals

28%

Doncaster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

61%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Doncaster defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Doncaster attack 1.46 + AFC Wimbledon defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

45%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

28%

AFC Wimbledon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Omar Bugiel

AFC Wimbledon · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

Sam Hutchinson

27'

M. Stevens

57'

Josh Kelly

61'

J. Ironside← J. Emmanuel

61'

H. Clifton← G. Broadbent

62'

R. Harbottle← S. Hutchinson

62'

66'

75'

76'

80'

80'

85'

88'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCDoncaster

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots5

5Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots5

2On Target0

2Off Target3

3Blocked2

3Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

292Total Passes311

153Accurate Passes189

52%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2