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Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2024

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
H. Adelakun 3'
2/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Doncaster39%
×Draw29%
AFC Wimbledon32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.18
AFC Wimbledon
1.03

Doncaster creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.42
AFC Wimbledon
0.89

allows per match

Doncaster
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
0.93

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
68%
Doncaster or AFC Wimbledon
71%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
61%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
17%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
69%
Doncaster 2+ goals
33%
Doncaster 3+ goals
12%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
64%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
28%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
55%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.42 + AFC Wimbledon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 + Doncaster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Doncaster scores more
39%
level
29%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
32%

Doncaster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
T. Lo-TutalaDoncasterDoncaster · G
7.5

Match Events

3'
H. Adelakun↳ H. Biggins
28'
Isaac Ogundere
46'
Armani Little
54'
K. Hurst← H. Adelakun
55'
James Tilley
70'
T. Nixon← J. Maxwell
71'
B. Waters← H. Biggins
71'
J. Neufville← J. Kelly
79'
J. Gordon← Omar Bugiel
84'
J. Davison← L. Brown
90+2'
J. Olowu← J. Sterry

Possession

53%Doncaster

Shots

14Doncaster

Pass accuracy

52%Doncaster

Statistics

DoncasterAFC
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots4
8Corners2
5Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots4
3On Target1
8Off Target3
3Blocked0
10Inside Box4
4Outside Box0
Passing
53%Possession47%
443Total Passes401
296Accurate Passes246
67%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls18
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon

Doncaster beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League Two on February 24, 2024.

Goals: H. Adelakun (3').

Doncaster controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.