Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 110+ matches
Doncaster46%
AFC Wimbledon28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Doncaster creates 35% more chances
Season form · 112 home / 110 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Doncaster ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches
AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.59 · 110 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Doncaster attack 1.40 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50
AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Doncaster at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Luton
Barnsley
Charlton
Portsmouth
SunderlandDoncaster
Peterborough
Coventry
Burton Albion
Blackpool
Fleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
SouthendAFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
Walsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Doncaster host AFC Wimbledon on Saturday, 14 March 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon — Match Preview
Doncaster face AFC Wimbledon on March 14, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Doncaster host AFC Wimbledon at The Keepmoat Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.