Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dodoma Jiji vs Azam — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Azam
Azam
12/1/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 13Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Dodoma Jiji30%
×Draw31%
Azam39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
0.91
Azam
1.07

Azam creates 18% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.01
Azam
1.29

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.85
Azam
0.80

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Azam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
61%
Dodoma Jiji or Azam
69%
Draw or Azam
70%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
11%
Azam wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
60%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
23%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
6%
Azam 1+ goals
66%
Azam 2+ goals
29%
Azam 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
44%
Azam (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 91 matches

Azam away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.01 + Azam defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Azam attack 1.29 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
30%
level
31%
Azam scores more
39%

Azam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dodoma Jiji vs Azam

Azam beat Dodoma Jiji 3-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.