Azam 2–0 Dodoma Jiji: Result & Stats

Azam

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dodoma Jiji

N. Chilambo 90+8'

J. Ngita 67'

6/30/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 30Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azam76%

×Draw19%

Dodoma Jiji5%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzamExpected goals in this matchDodoma Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.28

Azam

1.85

Dodoma Jiji

0.28

Azam creates 561% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.88

creates per match

0.17

0.38

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Azam

1.88

Dodoma Jiji

0.17

allows per match

Azam

0.38

Dodoma Jiji

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azam+0.00on par

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Dodoma Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–14%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Azam or draw

95%

Azam or Dodoma Jiji

81%

Draw or Dodoma Jiji

24%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+

48%

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals

84%

Azam 2+ goals

55%

Azam 3+ goals

28%

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

24%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

3%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)

94%

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.88 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.17 + Azam defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Azam scores more

76%

level

19%

Dodoma Jiji scores more

5%

Azam at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

J. Ngita

90+8'

N. Chilambo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff