Azam 4–1 Dodoma Jiji: Result & Stats

Azam

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dodoma Jiji

3/3/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 19Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Azam64%

×Draw23%

Dodoma Jiji13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzamExpected goals in this matchDodoma Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.64

Azam

1.76

Dodoma Jiji

0.64

Azam creates 175% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 92 away

1.98

creates per match

0.67

0.61

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Azam

1.98

Dodoma Jiji

0.67

allows per match

Azam

0.61

Dodoma Jiji

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azam+0.00on par

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Dodoma Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Azam or draw

87%

Azam or Dodoma Jiji

77%

Draw or Dodoma Jiji

36%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+

37%

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals

83%

Azam 2+ goals

52%

Azam 3+ goals

26%

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

47%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

14%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)

83%

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.98 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.67 + Azam defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Azam scores more

64%

level

23%

Dodoma Jiji scores more

13%

Azam at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff