Djurgardens IF 1–0 Halmstad: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Halmstad

L. Bergvall 81'

9/30/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 25Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Djurgardens IF56%

×Draw23%

Halmstad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.99

Djurgardens IF

1.79

Halmstad

0.99

Djurgardens IF creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

1.85

creates per match

1.02

0.97

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.85

Halmstad

1.02

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.97

Halmstad

1.74

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.47scores more

Halmstad-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

79%

Djurgardens IF or Halmstad

77%

Draw or Halmstad

44%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

32%

Halmstad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

83%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

53%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

26%

Halmstad 1+ goals

63%

Halmstad 2+ goals

26%

Halmstad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

73%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.97 · 19 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.74 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.85 + Halmstad defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.79

Halmstad attack 1.02 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

56%

level

23%

Halmstad scores more

21%

Djurgardens IF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Danielson

Djurgardens IF · D

8.5

Match Events

53'

Hampus Finndell

68'

L. Bergvall← H. Finndell

68'

Vá← O. Fallenius

68'

H. Radetinac← J. Une-Larsson

73'

T. Boakye← K. Karlsson

76'

N. Milleskog← G. Wikheim

81'

Gabriel Wallentin

81'

L. Bergvall↳ S. Dahl

84'

Viktor Granath← P. Ofosu-Ayeh

87'

Samuel Dahl

88'

B. Šabović← M. Eriksson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensHalmstad

Overview

71%Possession29%

21Total Shots8

2.18Expected Goals (xG)1.04

8Corners0

12Fouls6

Shots

21Total Shots8

6On Target3

13Off Target3

2Blocked2

13Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

691Total Passes291

615Accurate Passes216

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Djurgardens IF 1–0 Halmstad

Djurgardens IF beat Halmstad 1-0 in Allsvenskan on September 30, 2023.

Goals: L. Bergvall (81').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.

Djurgardens IF vs Halmstad — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: Djurgardens IF 1–0 Halmstad