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Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Diyala
Diyala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
B. Okoronkwo 8'
Lolo 30' (pen)
11/7/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Diyala39%
×Draw29%
Al Minaa Basra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
1.19
Al Minaa Basra
1.05

Diyala creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 93 away

creates per match

Diyala
0.97
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Diyala
1.24
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
68%
Diyala or Al Minaa Basra
71%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
61%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
17%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
70%
Diyala 2+ goals
33%
Diyala 3+ goals
12%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
65%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
28%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
55%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 0.97 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Diyala defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Diyala scores more
39%
level
29%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
32%

Diyala at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Diyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
B. Okoronkwo
30'
LoloPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra

Diyala and Al Minaa Basra drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on November 7, 2024.

Goals: B. Okoronkwo (8'), Lolo (30' pen).

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.