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Al Minaa Basra vs Diyala — Iraqi League 2020

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Diyala
Diyala
J. Kararr 79'
M. Abdulraheem 68'
M. Ali 41'
7/2/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 38Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al Minaa Basra40%
×Draw29%
Diyala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.19
Diyala
1.00

Al Minaa Basra creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.16
Diyala
0.84

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.17
Diyala
1.22

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Diyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
69%
Al Minaa Basra or Diyala
71%
Draw or Diyala
60%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
17%
Diyala wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
70%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
33%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
12%
Diyala 1+ goals
63%
Diyala 2+ goals
26%
Diyala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
57%
Diyala (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Diyala defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Diyala attack 0.84 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
40%
level
29%
Diyala scores more
31%

Al Minaa Basra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
M. Ali
68'
M. Abdulraheem
79'
J. Kararr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Minaa Basra 3–0 Diyala

Al Minaa Basra beat Diyala 3-0 in Iraqi League on July 2, 2025.

Goals: M. Ali (41'), M. Abdulraheem (68'), J. Kararr (79').

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in al-Baṣra (Basra).