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Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Diyala
Diyala
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
10/26/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Diyala35%
×Draw29%
Al Minaa Basra36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
1.09
Al Minaa Basra
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Diyala
0.96
Al Minaa Basra
0.77

allows per match

Diyala
1.44
Al Minaa Basra
1.23

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
64%
Diyala or Al Minaa Basra
71%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
65%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
14%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
66%
Diyala 2+ goals
30%
Diyala 3+ goals
10%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
67%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
30%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
50%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 0.96 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.77 + Diyala defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Diyala scores more
35%
level
29%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
36%

Al Minaa Basra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Diyala 0–0 Al Minaa Basra

Diyala and Al Minaa Basra drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on October 26, 2025.