Dinamo Vladivostok 1–0 Dinamo Bryansk

Dinamo Vladivostok

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

5/10/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 7Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok36%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bryansk36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VladivostokExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.19

Dinamo Bryansk

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 47 away

1.61

creates per match

1.53

0.84

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.61

Dinamo Bryansk

1.53

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.84

Dinamo Bryansk

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw

64%

Dinamo Vladivostok or Dinamo Bryansk

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

50%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.53 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

36%

level

28%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

36%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff