Dinamo Bryansk 2–0 Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Vladivostok

5/30/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 16Dynamo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk48%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Vladivostok25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vladivostok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.92

Dinamo Bryansk

1.38

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.92

Dinamo Bryansk creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.39

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.83

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

75%

Dinamo Bryansk or Dinamo Vladivostok

73%

Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok

52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

60%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

23%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

65%

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.39 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

48%

level

27%

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

25%

Dinamo Bryansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff