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Dinamo Bryansk vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
4/8/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 2Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk49%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Vladivostok24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.45
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.92

Dinamo Bryansk creates 58% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.74
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.38
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
76%
Dinamo Bryansk or Dinamo Vladivostok
73%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
18%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
60%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.38 · 47 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.74 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
49%
level
27%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
24%

Dinamo Bryansk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Dinamo Bryansk 2–0 Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Bryansk beat Dinamo Vladivostok 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.