Dinamo Moscow 1–0 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Dinamo Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit Saint Petersburg

F. Smolov 74'

11/29/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsVTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dinamo Moscow42%

×Draw25%

Zenit Saint Petersburg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchZenit Saint Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.27

Dinamo Moscow

1.48

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.27

Dinamo Moscow creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

2.04

creates per match

1.45

1.09

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

2.04

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.45

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.09

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

67%

Dinamo Moscow or Zenit Saint Petersburg

75%

Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg

58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

20%

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

43%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

19%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

72%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

36%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

56%

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.04 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.45 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

42%

level

25%

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

33%

Dinamo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

38'

54'

69'

69'

73'

F. Smolov← K. Tyukavin

73'

A. Erokhin← A. Mostovoy

74'

F. Smolov↳ N. Moumi Ngamaleu

79'

Douglas Santos

80'

M. Fernandes← W. Isidor

89'

L. Chávez← Bitello

90+4'

Anton Shunin

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DinamoZenit

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots12

4Corners8

13Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target0

3Off Target8

1Blocked4

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides5

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg

Dinamo Moscow beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 1-0 in Cup on November 29, 2023.

Goals: F. Smolov (74').

Dinamo Moscow controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.

Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg