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Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
8/10/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Dinamo Moscow33%
×Draw27%
Zenit Saint Petersburg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.21
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.35

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.64
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.64

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.06
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.78

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
60%
Dinamo Moscow or Zenit Saint Petersburg
73%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
14%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
12%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
74%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
39%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
46%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.64 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
33%
level
27%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
40%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dinamo Moscow 0–2 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Dinamo Moscow 2-0 in Premier League on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.